区域土地利用结构及其驱动因子的统计分析

采用经典的数理统计方法---典型相关分析,选择位于干旱半干旱过渡地带的榆林地区作为典型代表,对区域性土地利用结构及其驱动因子进行了统计分析。通过大型社会科学统计软件包ＳＰＳＳ操作运行,并对统计结果进行专业分析,定量诊断出各驱动因子对该区土地利用结构分布贡献作用的大小。同时运用典型相关系数和冗余度分析,对诊断结果进行了检验     

长江三角洲近50年耕地数量变化的过程与驱动机制研究

长江三角洲是中国人口最密集、经济增长最快和土地集约化利用程度最高的地区之一,经济快速发展加剧的人地矛盾已经成为区域可持续发展面临的一个重要问题。论文利用近50年耕地长序列统计资料和近5年的土地详查与变更数据,研究揭示了长江三角洲高强度土地开发的特征和近50年耕地数量变化的基本过程及其空间差异,并初步探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子及其作用。研究表明,近50年来,长江三角洲地区耕地数量呈现明显的波动减少趋势,经历了由增加→急剧减少→缓慢减少→快速减少的基本变化过程,其中分别在1958～1963年、1985年前后和1993年前后出现了三次明显的耕地流失高峰,其形成机制主要是政策、经济发展和人口增长的驱动。     

Renormalized numerical simulation of flow over planar and non-planar fractal trees

We review the fundamentals of a new numerical modeling technique called Renormalized Numerical Simulation (RNS). The goal of RNS is to model the drag force produced by high Reynolds-number turbulent flow over objects that display scale-invariant properties, objects such as tree-like fractals. The hallmark of RNS in this application is that the drag of the unresolved tree branches is modeled using drag coefficients measured from the resolved branches and unresolved branches (as modeled in previous iterations of the procedure). In the present paper, RNS is used to study the effects of branch orientation on the drag force generated by highly idealized trees in which trunk and branches have square cross-section, and the branches all lie in a plane perpendicular to the incoming flow. Then, the procedure is generalized to the more general case of non-planar branch arrangements. Results illustrate that RNS may enable numerical modeling of environmental flow processes associated with fractal geometries using affordable computational resolution.     

Migration of saline solutions in variably saturated porous media

Migration of concentrated NaNO3 solutions in homogeneous packs of pre-wetted silica sands was investigated using a light transmission system. Solutions of 5 molal NaNO3 were found to migrate downward 24-62% faster than pure water, in an unstable, fingered manner. This behavior was attributed primarily to a surface tension induced, non-zero apparent contact angle between the imbibing and the resident fluids. For saline solutions of similar surface tension to that of pure water (achieved by the addition of 2% methanol), the migration rates and plume shapes were comparable to that of water, demonstrating that density was not the primary source of the observed differences in migration patterns. At depths where resident saturation increased above residual, the migration process appeared to occur via film flow with slight changes in saturation (<4%), rather than in a series of abrupt jumps, as observed at shallower depths. A method for contact angle scaling was used to illustrate the effects of non-zero contact angles on capillary pressure-saturation curves.     

SPECULATIVE POLICY MAKING IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL ARENA1

ABSTRACT: The development of policy in the American political system has been characterized by incremental change, creation of support, bargaining, compromise, pluralistic group interplay, development of social support and political support, technical input, review and consideration. Incrementalism, as it is called, allows policy to develop in tandem with technical knowledge, legislative and executive support, political advantage, and presumably greater certainty concerning the impact of a particular choice. Environmental policy development, one scholar has hypothesized, followed this basic pattern until the late 1960's when policy aspirations began to escalate much faster than the knowledge, organizational arrangements and political support upon which policy implementation depends. This “escalation” hypothesis is examined in this paper, with particular attention given to policy development in West Virginia.     

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FRESH-SALT WATER INTERFACES USING FINITE ELEMENT AND SIMPLE APPROACHES

ABSTRACT: The fresh-salt water interface in artesian aquifers has been investigated by various techniques on the basis of its analogy to the free surface in earth dams or cores of dams. Although various approximations are used, some more or less exact solutions exist. One of the simple methods, that would appeal to practical workers, was developed by the analysis of hydraulic forces. However, this method has not been checked thoroughly due to the lack of wide ranges of coverage by the more or less exact solutions. In this paper a suggested finite element method is used for the purpose of comparing with the method of hydraulic forces. The presented procedure eliminates some of the difficulties and uncertainties in current finite element procedures. Both methods proved to be in close agreement. Moreover, the hydraulic heads along the upper boundary of the artesian aquifer were found to be in close agreement with Dupuit's equation. The results of this investigation would greatly simplify the more complex management problems when the effects of discharge and/or recharge wells are added to the natural flow effects.     

“流空间”视域下淮海经济区城乡融合发展驱动机制

从要素流动多维重构淮海经济区城乡融合评价体系,以动态耦合协调度模型测度城乡融合水平并分析其时空分异规律,最后从“流空间”视角探索城乡融合发展驱动机制。结果表明：（1）研究区城乡融合水平整体较低但趋势向好,其正向空间关联和局域内向集聚特征明显。（2）流空间视角下区域呈多中心网络结构,且在人流和资金流下相对紧密,而物流和信息流下“核—辐”结构突出。（3）推动核心区集聚效应转向扩散效应,发挥各城市节点比较优势,合理调节要素流动强度、方向和质量,并在实施地方和国家政策时配套相关制度,方能实现淮海经济区城乡融合“量”“质”同升。     

我国安全生产基层执法队伍建设问题与对策

通过收集分析相关统计数据和资料,深入分析我国安全生产基层执法队伍建设现状。统计分析结果表明:专门的基层执法机构仍不健全;与基层实际执法工作需要相比,执法人员相对不足;执法人员业务素质不高;执法队伍不稳定,人员变动频繁。最后从建立人员配备标准、合理调配人员、加快监察人员专业化建设进程、落实从优待安政策等4方面,提出了相应的对策。     

Nexus security: governance, innovation and the resilient city

Nexus security is a compound mix of ideas: reconciling human needs and wants with access to multiple resources; diversity of access to those resources and services; resilience in the face of weather- and climaterelated variability; resilience likewise in the face of infrastructure failure; and the personal, individual sense of belonging. At the level of Systems Thinking there is a very close relationship between resilience in the behavior of natural (ecological) systems and resilience in the social dynamics of governance within communities, where such resilience establishes the viability of these communities over centuries, which in turn entails successful stewardship of the man-environment relationship. We use insights from this cross-system mapping — across natural, built, and human systems — to assess, first, the role of city governance in achieving nexus security (or not) and, second, the role of technological innovations in serving the same purpose. More specifically, eight principles, covering resilience and diversity of access to resources and services, are used to gauge security-enhancing features of city buildings and infrastructure. Case studies include new designs of resilient office blocks, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) recovery systems for sanitation and wastewater treatment, and the reconstruction of urban parks for the provision of ecosystem services. Throughout the paper, matters of risk in the face of meteorological variability are prominent. We do not conclude, however, that the presence of risk implies nexus insecurity.     

On water security, sustainability, and the water-food-energy-climate nexus

The role of water security in sustainable development and in the nexus of water, food, energy and climate interactions is examined from the starting point of the definition of water security offered by Grey and Sadoff. Much about the notion of security has to do with the presumption of scarcity in the resources required to meet human needs. The treatment of scarcity in mainstream economics is in turn examined, therefore, in relation to how each of us as individuals reconciles means with ends, a procedure at the core of the idea of sustainable development. According to the Grey-Sadoff definition, attaining water security amounts to achieving basic, single-sector water development as a precursor of more general, self-sustaining, multi-sectoral development. This is consistent with the way in which water is treated as “first among equals”, i.e. privileged, in thinking about what is key in achieving security around the nexus of water, food, energy and climate. Cities, of course, are locations where demands for these multiple resource-energy flows are increasingly being generated. The paper discusses two important facets of security, i.e., diversity of access to resources and services (such as sanitation) and resilience in the behavior of coupled human-built-natural systems. Eight quasi-operational principles, by which to gauge nexus security with respect to city buildings and infrastructure, are developed.